Gaza war hurt Harris, DNC autopsy author confirms

The author of the Democratic National Committee's 2024 election review confirmed that the war in Gaza damaged Kamala Harris's campaign, particularly in Michigan, and that he had shared his assessment with a pro-Palestinian group. Paul Rivera, who no longer advises the DNC, published a 564-page report this week detailing how the Israeli military campaign in Gaza eroded support for the Democratic ticket.

A party divided over Gaza's role

Since Harris's defeat, Democrats have battled over whether the Biden administration's policy toward Israel contributed to the loss. Moderate voices have insisted the issue was overshadowed by inflation and immigration. Progressives, however, argue that the high civilian death toll in Gaza sapped enthusiasm among young voters, liberals and Arab Americans.

Rivera's analysis places him firmly in the latter camp, at least regarding Michigan. He wrote that the political analysis is simple, pointing to electoral shifts in Dearborn, Dearborn Heights and Hamtramck, where large Arab American populations turned away from the Democratic ticket in 2024.

What the report shows

According to Rivera, the war's backlash cost Harris tens of thousands of votes in Michigan. He highlights a surge in Green Party support in those communities, where activists organized against the Democratic ticket with messages such as “Do Not Vote Genocide.” A photograph in his report captures a volunteer distributing literature with exactly that slogan.

Rivera calls the impact on Dearborn and neighboring areas a warning for Democrats, while acknowledging that the overall shift toward President Donald Trump in Michigan stemmed from multiple factors. He wrote that the Israel-Hamas conflict is a complex situation, but that the electoral results demonstrate the crisis hurt Harris.

Why the DNC's official autopsy omitted Gaza

When the DNC released its initial autopsy earlier this year, many Democrats were stunned that it contained no discussion of Gaza. Rivera now says he drafted such findings late last year but never submitted them to party leadership. He did not explain why, and the DNC has not commented on his new report.

Rivera's work has drawn criticism from across the ideological spectrum. Some Democrats believe the entire autopsy process was mishandled, and moderates continue to point to public opinion surveys showing the war was not among voters' top concerns. Yet Rivera maintains that its impact was measurable.

Antisemitism and the road ahead

Rivera also recognized that Jewish Americans have experienced rising antisemitism in the U.S. He praised DNC Chair Ken Martin for convening a working group on the Middle East, suggesting that the party is beginning to grapple with the issue in a more structured way.

The new report is not just a post-mortem; it is a directive. Rivera hopes Democrats will learn from Michigan's example as they prepare for the 2026 midterms and beyond. The challenge is balancing a strong pro-Israel stance, concern for Palestinian civilians, and the domestic fallout that comes with such a polarizing conflict.

As the party searches for a path forward, Rivera's data will likely fuel further debate about how to address foreign policy issues that resonate deeply with key voting blocs. The question is not just whether Gaza hurt Harris, but how Democrats can rebuild trust with communities that felt abandoned.